Since 2012, Criterion Economics has supported EquitiesFirst through complex econometric analysis, financial modeling and simulation, and predictive analytics services. Criterion’s work enables EquitiesFirst to manage risk, to maintain liquidity, and to provide clients reliable financing shielded from market risks. Criterion continuously refines its models to reflect changing conditions in the global economy.
In a typical transaction, EquitiesFirst provides its client liquidity through a securities-based loan. Employing insights from time-series econometrics and behavioral economics, Criterion’s proprietary models track EquitiesFirst’s business both at the portfolio level and at the level of an individual borrower, from the first day of a contract until the loan’s successful repayment several years later. By offering real-time analysis of changing patterns in financial markets and the global economy, Criterion helps EquitiesFirst manage the risk of its loan portfolio to increase profitability, predictability, and the overall effectiveness of its service and the satisfaction of its clients.
EquitiesFirst has used Criterion’s analysis to forecast financial markets and predict the behavior of its clients as borrowers. Through comprehensive historical analysis of EquitiesFirst’s financial instruments, Criterion has built an array of data-intensive algorithms that analyze how EquitiesFirst’s risk exposure varies with changes in financial markets and microeconomic indicators. These models help EquitiesFirst to select and assist clients, to monitor loan performance continuously over time, and to anticipate changing circumstances.
Criterion also undertakes special projects analyzing how macroeconomic risks affect EquitiesFirst’s business model. These projects have addressed political risk, economic instability in developing countries, and the effects of changing financial regulations, among other topics.